The Improbable War: China, The United States and the Logic of Great Power Conflict

Conflict between the USA and China cannot be ruled our, argues Christopher Coker in his new book. While the outbreak of hostilities between the two superpowers in a daunting prospect a seemingly improbable one it is all too possible, which is why we need to think about the unthinkable now. It will also be played out in cyberspace and outer space, and like all previous wars will have devastating consequences.

In 1914, war between the Great Powers was also considered unlikely, yet it happened, and popular though analogies with the First World War are, the lessons drawn from its outbreak are usually mistaken. Among these errors is the tendency to overestimate human rationality, which, Coker contends, shapes current debates about Sino US tensions in the military, political and economic sphere.